
Forgive us for taking advantage of a little bit of serendipity.
Precisely 24 hours after posting “A balanced view”, in which we implore project managers of the need to gather facts and make a decision based on rational analysis and background, an alumni magazine arrived from the University of Wollongong. My son attended UOW as part of an international exchange program with the University of Massachusetts.
The cover story was: “Climate Change: What to Believe?”.
The story, written by scientist Dr. Helen McGregor, is a good read not only because it provides a calm, scientific view of climate change, but for project managers, it talks about something which has always fascinated me and that is the way that people (and your team members and customers, by the way, are people) react to uncertainty. Note the portions highlighted below in green. You will find a valuable lesson here which has NOTHING to do with climate change, and has much more to do with successfully managing a project, and that is to understand the way folks react to uncertainty and the best way to communicate under those conditions.
I have put the beginning of the story here as a teaser, but we hope and expect that you’ll read the entire story.
“As a climate scientist I am often asked if I believe in human-induced climate change. I find this a curious question: for me the science of human-induced climate change is not something one believes in but an obvious conclusion drawn from the data. But it got me thinking – where has this belief/non-belief idea come from and why is there so much confusion about climate science?
There is no doubt that climate is a complicated beast. There are multiple players – the main ones being the atmosphere, ocean, vegetation, and ice – all of which interact with each other on a variety of timescales from hours to decades to centuries and beyond. Trying to describe all the processes, and to put them in a climate model, is a tough gig. But it can and has been done. Our daily weather forecasts are based on models, and though not perfect, they’re often within a couple of degrees Celsius of the actual temperature. That’s quite an achievement when you think about it.
Importantly, the models reproduce the observed 20th Century warming. This means that at least at the global scale we do have a good handle on the climate complexity. But communicating this complexity to the public is no mean feat and scientists aren’t always the best at communicating their own science in a language that non-scientists can understand.
One of the difficulties in communicating climate science is the concept of “uncertainty”. With the vast number of processes in the climate system there are some that we understand better than others – uncertainty describes how well we know what we know. Climate scientists, having a good understanding of uncertainty, tend to downplay the state of knowledge and this can be taken by some as a reason to do nothing.
But there are many instances where we may not understand a process 100 per cent still act. For example, we know that a healthy diet and exercise reduces the risk of heart disease, yet the details of exactly which food and how much exercise are still the subject of research. Does this mean we should have an unhealthy diet and not exercise? Of course not. The same principle applies to reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. We know that there is a big problem and should get on with the process of dealing with it.”
Please read the remainder of Dr. McGregor’s story here.


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We really like this quote from The Washington Post (the editorial copy) last November; “Let’s agree that there is debate about climate change and that we don’t know exactly when oil will run out. But let’s also agree that man has an impact on his environment. I don’t need a fancy degree or any reports to know that; I can see it every day in the litter lining our roads, in the murkiness of the Chesapeake Bay and in the smog hanging over our cities.”

