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lesson

We want you to start here by watching the video below:

Now you may not have the same political views of the commentator, but you have to admit that the Ixtoc spill and its solutions sound strikingly familiar.

Aligned with this video is this story from today’s Boston Globe.

It’s a short story but here are some telling statistics from (this year’s) Gulf oil spill:

  • Oil spilled so far: 69 million to 131.5 million gallons
  • Oil recovered: 10 million gallons burned off, 25 million gallons collected
  • Tools used to collect oil in the 2010 Gulf spill:  booms, mechanical skimmers, and oil dispersants.
  • Tools used to collect oil in 1979 Ixtoc spill: oil booms, mechanical skimmers, and oil dispersants.
  • Tools used to collect oil in 1989 Valdez spill: oil booms, mechanical skimmers, and oil dispersants.


  • Investment in past three years in drilling by Shell Oil, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron Corp., BP America:  $33.8 Billion
  • Investment in past three years in cleanup technologies: unknown, but a tiny fraction of the above

The point of the article, and of Rachel Maddow’s rant above is just really a project management principle:  use your lessons learned.  There have been several chances to do that, as you see above.  And you can’t blame the oil industry for trying to focus mainly on the profitable business of drilling.  But when you look at the costs they’ve incurred, you have to shake your head and ask why, with these many real-world lessons learned they wouldn’t have devoted more effort to learning from the other spills and investing in fixing them.  Yes, it’s expensive to drill a relief well with each well but it sure looks like that’s the way to go.

As project managers, we owe it to ourselves, our stakeholders, and sometimes the wider environment (pun intended) when we initiate a project.

Have we really looked back – thoughtfully – at previous similar projects, and what went horribly wrong or tremendously right with them?  Have we taken that learning and integrated it into our planning? If that integration requires speaking “truth to power”, have we the courage to do that?  We assert that having the facts and the history in hand increases your capability to have the courage to confront, convey, and convince. Those facts are there.  The video above is striking in the similarity to today’s Gulf problems.  I would have liked to have seen that video played during the recent Congressional panels on the oil spill, and would like to have seen Tony Hayward’s reaction.

Again, you don’t have to agree with the politics or even the particular scenario we’ve chosen to illustrate the point.  If you get the part we’ve bolded above, you get the “project management point of intersection” here.

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apollo13

“A Workaround is a solution to an unanticipated problem. Not to be confused with a contingency, or backup plan, which is conceived in advance, a workaround is a far less elegant solution to the problem. Typically, a workaround is not viewed as something that is designed to be a panacea, or cure-all, but rather as a crude solution to the immediate problem.”

The above is taken from an excellent resource for PMs – a blog called Project Management Knowledge.  They have a glossary and this is the definition of workaround.  We like it.  That is, we like both the site and their definition of ‘workaround’.

At the time of this posting, the Ron Howard movie Apollo 13, starring Tom Hanks, Kevin Bacon, Gary Sinise, and Ed Harris, is showing on Home Box Office (HBO).  Also at the time of this writing, the Gulf oil spill continues and repeated attempts to fix it have failed.  Attempts with names like Top Hat, Junk Shot, Top Kill, and the latest, Slice and Cap, are a strong giveaway that what we’re working with here are, in fact, clearly workarounds.  In fact, we understand that James Cameron has been invited to help solve the problem, based on his work with advanced underwater robotics from his film The Abyss.

The reference to crude, the fact that the new mission of Apollo 13 was to get the astronauts back to Earth, and this being a blog called EarthPM combined with the crude that is pouring into the Gulf and the workaround(s) being attempted to fix that problem seemed to me to have way much too much ‘karma’ to not generate a post – a valuable one, we hope.  Oh, wait, there is the other connection of movies to the Gulf with the James Cameron invitation.  Wow, that is a lot of karma!

I suggest you start by watching this scene from the movie.

OK, if you have seen the movie, that was a good refresher, right?  And if not, suffice it to say that at this point, NASA is furiously searching for a way to save the lives of the astronauts, having scrapped the original objective the moon landing project long ago – just as BP is furiously searching for a way to stop the leak, the lawsuits, the damage to the environment, and to minimize the reputation damage they’ve suffered, to say nothing of avoiding criminal charges, having scrapped the original objective of the well (drawing oil from it to make money).

So let’s bring this back to Project Management again.

When we manage a project, we do a thorough job of Risk Management Planning, including the creation of  a Risk Management Plan – to tell us how, in general, we’ll deal with risk on the project.  This includes the ways in which we’ll identify risk, and general broad brush plans for contingency management.   Up front, in the project, we go through Risk Identification, Analysis (both qualitative, to see which ones have the highest risk factors, and quantitative, to further analyze those with the highest risk factors).  Only after we really have a handle on the project’s risks do we go through the details of responding to risk.

Furthermore, even after all this is done, we don’t stop.  We monitor and control risks to see, for example, if new risks have popped up, or if our current assumptions are still valid, or if the risk response plans we’ve put in place are working.

So, all that said, what if our risk response doesn’t work?

That’s where the word contingency comes in.  Contingency is money, time, or resources (like a life-saving flotation device) set aside to minimize the impact of the risk that is now triggered.  These are thought of in advance.  In the Apollo 13 dialogue, you hear the engineers actually use this phrase (“we didn’t have a contingency for this”).

On a cruise ship, a fleet of lifeboats on a cruise ship is part of their contingency planning. If contingency is a house pet, a workaround is a very different animal.  A workaround, unlike a contingency, is not fed with foresight, softly petted with preparation, not pampered with planning .  Instead, a workaround is like having a wild boar, or even more descriptively, a griffin suddenly appear in your living room, hungry, flailing, snorting, and growling.  It’s unexpected, and you must deal with it NOW.  And it’s really the dealing with the griffin that is the workaround, not the griffin itself, although the imagery was just too good to avoid.

griffin5That’s what BP and Transocean and Haliburton and Cameron International (manufacturer of the Blowout Preventer) are facing now.  That’s why they’re calling in movie directors and engineers, and 25,000 workers to put together Top Hats, Junk Shots, Top Kills, and Slice and Caps.  There was less of a contingency than there should have been to deal with the impact.  Once again (and we’ve blogged about this), why wouldn’t the oil industry as whole (if not BP in particular) have had a fleet of the Kevin Costner -funded boats ready to clean up the spill to at least buy a little time?  That’s a form of contingency that would have kept the griffins at bay.

Now BP has said that it had a contingency plan, and it’s working – incredibly, they did actually say that, just a few days ago.  Read that story here.

Let’s wrap this unusual posting in the following way:

It’s worth it to put the time in up front in a project so that you really understand the risk factors (the probability multiplied by the FULL impact) of all of your risks, and it makes sense to put the time in up front on contingency planning on those risks.

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spill map

You’d think that the environmental protection or “Climate Bill” might be shored up (excuse the terrible pun) by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, which will likely overtake the Exxon Valdez as the USA’s worst oil spill.  In fact, the latest news from the spill involves the shutdown of all fishing in the entire Gulf area (see this story from the Houston Chronicle).

“More than 6,800 square miles of federal fishing areas, from the mouth of the Mississippi to Florida’s Pensacola Bay were closed for at least 10 days on Sunday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco says government scientists are taking samples from the waters near the spill to determine whether there is any danger.”

So…all of this should help pass the Climate Bill, right?  After all, the Climate Bill is about alternative energy, right?  And after all, the Climate Bill is about protecting the environment, right?

Think again.

As it turns out – and this is politics, folks – the bill calls for new offshore drilling; this was one of the concessions made to help build consensus for the bill.  Project managers know that a hybrid of compromise and collaboration often are what’s needed to get things done – and that’s what happened here.

But in this case, the inclusion of new offshore drilling in the light of this catastrophe will probably end up killing the bill, which is already stalled, puttering, and nearly dead anyway.

A good story on this situation appeared in the wire services (AP) and you can find that full story here.

———————————–

*** FLASH *** Update 14-MAY-2010

May 14, 2010 – news story broken by NPR – see full story here.

The amount of oil spilling into the Gulf of Mexico is far greater than official estimates suggest, according to an exclusive NPR analysis.

At NPR’s request, experts analyzed video that BP released Wednesday. Their findings suggest the BP spill is already far larger than the 1989 Exxon Valdez accident in Alaska, which spilled at least 250,000 barrels of oil.

[Editor's comment: this means the Gulf oil spill is like one Exxon Valdez every four days]

Steven Wereley, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Purdue University, analyzed videotape of the seafloor gusher using a technique called particle image velocimetry.

A computer program simply tracks particles and calculates how fast they are moving. Wereley put the BP video of the gusher into his computer. He made a few simple calculations and came up with an astonishing value for the rate of the oil spill: 70,000 barrels a day — much higher than the official estimate of 5,000 barrels a day.

The method is accurate to a degree of plus or minus 20 percent.

UPDATE 21-MAY:

The update above still was too conservative; the estimates are much larger.  BP has been forced to admit that the 5,000 gallon-per-day rate was far off, because they are siphoning 5,000 gallons per day and the camera still shows huge plumes billowing out.

There is now a “SpillCam” on the US Government DOE site:

http://globalwarming.house.gov/spillcam

However, it’s been down almost since inception because of bandwidth problems (seems like a lot of people have an interest in this!)  You can still get a view of what’s going on down there from Senator Bill Nelson’s site, which captured some of the video and put it up on his site.

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deepwaterhorizon

In our book we talk about the Cost of Greenality.

Like the Cost of Quality, with which Project Managers should be familiar, it speaks to the idea that money spent up front to prevent problems and to be sure to meet stakeholder requirements will outweigh the savings in the medium and long run.  Below is a chart that actually we were lucky enough to present today at PMI MassBay’s Professional Development Day in Waltham, Massachusetts.
cost of greenality


BP and TransOcean are now seeing this first hand.

We’ll have much more on the Horizon Deepwater spill, but for now, have a look at these two videos from Fox News.

Environmental effects of the spill – video from Fox.

Cost of Greenality

Cost of External Failure – angry fishermen sue BP – from Fox.

Do you think BP may have been better off investing in the technology which could have prevented this incident, or are they better off dealing with the external (VERY external) failure that they’re experiencing now?  And in this case, it’s not just BP, nor TransOcean.  It’s the entire Gulf region, already hit hard by Katrina, and this may now start to affect people along the rest of the Atlantic and elsewhere.

Consider the Cost of Greenality.

UPDATE 4-MAY-2010

We’re now beginning to see numbers associated with the Cost of Greenality for this event – in the high single to double digits, in BILLIONS of dollars, and $34 BILLION in stock value losses, not to speak of the horrific reputation setback and lawsuits BP faces.

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superheroes with wind powerWe’ve written about Cape Wind in our blog many times, (as well as on sister site ScopeCrepe)- from an environmental perspective and a project management perspective.  Many, many lessons learned here.  Textbook examples of stakeholder management (and mismanagement).  Stakeholder interaction.  And from a green PM perspective – the effect of environmental projects on the economy.   1,000 construction jobs, and an unspecified number of new PM jobs are expected to be added by this $1B, 130-turbine project.  75% of Cape Cod’s electrical power needs are expected to be served by Cape Wind’s contribution to the grid.

On April 28, the project received Federal approval.  See the story published in today’s Boston Globe here.  There are already almost 100 moderated comments on the story.  UPDATE: The Globe has a good video here as well.

From Sustainable Business:

Cape Wind Receives Federal Approval for First Offshore Wind Farm

Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar on Wednesday approved the Cape Wind offshore wind farm, completing the last regulatory step for the project which was first propsed for Nantucket Sound about eight years ago.

The project has been delayed throughout the permitting process by opposition from coastal residents who fear the wind turbines, which will be erected five miles from shore, will devalue coastal properties and affect tourism.

Salzar said the developer of the $1 billion wind farm must agree to additional measures to minimize the potential adverse impacts of construction and operation of the facility.

“After careful consideration of all the concerns expressed during the lengthy review and consultation process and thorough analyses of the many factors involved, I find that the public benefits weigh in favor of approving the Cape Wind project at the Horseshoe Shoal location,” Salazar said in an announcement at the State House in Boston. “With this decision we are beginning a new direction in our Nation’s energy future, ushering in America’s first offshore wind energy facility and opening a new chapter in the history of this region.”

The Cape Wind project is expected to be the first wind farm on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf, generating enough power to meet 75% of the electricity demand for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Island combined.

A number of similar projects have been proposed for other northeast coastal states, positioning the region to tap 1 million megawatts of offshore Atlantic wind energy potential, which could create thousands of wind jobs in manufacturing, construction and operations and displace older, inefficient fossil-fueled generating plants.

Is everyone happy with this?

Um, no.

From the “Save Our Sound” web page:

Coalition of Stakeholder Groups Announce Cape Wind Lawsuits

Native American Tribes, Commercial Fishermen, Environmental Groups, Towns and Others Will File Suit to Bar Industrial Wind Project from Nantucket Sound

Hyannis, MA – A wide ranging coalition of stakeholder groups will immediately file suit in response to Secretary Salazar’s ruling to approve the Cape Wind project.

“While the Obama Administration today dealt a blow to all of us who care deeply about preserving our most precious natural treasures – this fight is not over,” said Audra Parker, president and CEO of the Alliance to Protect Nantucket Sound. “Litigation remains the option of last resort. However, when the federal government is intent on trampling the rights of Native Americans and the people of Cape Cod, we must act. We will not stand by and allow our treasured public lands to be marred forever by a corporate giveaway to private industrial energy developers.”

Lawsuits will be filed on behalf of a coalition of environmental groups – including the Alliance to Protect Nantucket Sound, Three Bays Preservation, Animal Welfare Institute, Industrial Wind Action Group, Californians for Renewable Energy, Oceans Public Trust Initiative (a project of the International Marine Mammal Project of the Earth Land Institute), Lower Laguna Madre Foundation – against the federal Fish and Wildlife Service and Minerals Management Service for violations of the Endangered Species Act.

The Alliance to Protect Nantucket Sound, along with the Duke’s County/Martha’s Vineyard Fishermen Association, will also file suit against the federal Minerals Management Service for violations under the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act. The Town of Barnstable has filed a notice of intent to file a lawsuit on the same grounds. And the Wampanoag tribe is preparing to mount a legal challenge to the project for violations of tribal rights. Additional legal issues include violation of the National Environmental Policy Act, the Migratory Bird Treaty Act, the Rivers and Harbors Act, the Clean Water Act, and the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act.

Secretary Salazar’s decision ignores the recent positions taken against the project by the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation, the National Trust for Historic Preservation, the Massachusetts Historical Commission and the National Park Service, which ruled recently that Nantucket Sound was eligible for listing on the National Register of Historic Places which, like our national parklands, would provide it a higher level of protection from industrial development.

The Advisory Council on Historic Preservation (ACHP) recommended that Secretary Salazar deny or relocate the proposed Cape Wind project because its effects would be “pervasive, destructive, and, in the instance of seabed construction, permanent.”

The ACHP called on Secretary Salazar to either deny the project or relocate it to a nearby alternative such as the compromise location outside of Nantucket Sound approximately ten miles south of the proposed site. The compromise location, South of Tuckernuck Island, has gained the support of every stakeholder involved, including Native American tribal leaders, state and federal historic preservation agencies, environmental groups, cities and towns, elected officials, airports, ferry lines, chambers of commerce and many others.

“It is a shame that the Obama Administration chose political expediency over developing a project in an environmentally responsible place that can actually be built,” said Parker. “The compromise location would have avoided years of litigation and allowed this project to move forward.”

Secretary Salazar left unaddressed the growing concerns in Massachusetts over the project’s energy costs to ratepayers and its overall cost to taxpayers.

Earlier this month Rhode Island rejected a deal between National Grid and an offshore wind project that would have set a rate that was nearly triple the current cost for electricity. The electric utility tapped to buy power from Cape Wind, National Grid, has failed to reach a similar agreement on the cost to ratepayers of Cape Wind’s energy.

Most estimates have put the cost of Cape Wind energy at two to three times the current rate for conventional power. This comes on top of the $10 billion ISO New England recently announced would be necessary to upgrade the region’s electrical grid and transmission facilities as a result of Cape Wind and other wind projects.

Massachusetts Secretary of Energy and Environmental Affairs Ian Bowles recently expressed concern over the project’s energy costs as did the state’s largest business group, the Associated Industries of Massachusetts.

Consumer anger is also palpable. In a recent survey conducted by the University of Massachusetts, a majority of consumers said they would not pay more for electricity produced by wind turbines. Much of the support for wind energy was based on the false assumption that offshore wind will lower electric bills. At the projected Cape Wind power rate, nearly 80 percent of respondents registered opposition to the project.
What do YOU think?

You can certainly familiarize yourself with the opposite ends of this spectrum by going to the two sites Save Our Sound and Cape Wind.

We suggest that you go either to the Boston Globe article or the Cape Cod Times and comment directly to the most local coverage.  And of course, you’re welcome and encouraged to comment here.

UPDATE: Also, see this interesting posting by the Green Skeptic about the Cape Wind approval juxtaposed with the Deepwater Horizon oil well spill.

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